Wow. This will likely dash of a lot of Progressive Wet Dreams. A couple of points:
First…this is a study done by Brian Riedl that was published today in Vox-–very much a left-leaning publication. In addition to the Congressional Budget Office, Riedl also uses other traditional liberal sourcing. So remember last week when people went apoplectic about a libertarian think tank’s musings over the cost of Medicare of All? Yea, you can shit-can those already-lame arguments this time.
In essence, the report concludes that Democratic Socialist proposals would cost $42 trillion over the next decade — $218 trillion over 30 years. In addition to Medicare for all, this includes tuition-free college, guaranteed employment, 12 weeks of paid family leave for new parents and for people with serious health conditions, student loan debt forgiveness, and a previously-introduced infrastructure spending plan. This does NOT include other popular Democratic Socialist proposals like universal Pre-K and expanded Social Services.
The study’s author estimates that in order to pay for all this fun stuff, federal spending would immediately hit 40% of GDP. By 2048; more than half of our GDP would be vested in Government spending. Beyond that—closer to 60%.
In order to pay for this? Well, even with huge defense cuts, the author estimates it would take a 37% payroll tax on top of the current 15.3%. So more than half of what you earn would go directly to Uncle Sam. Sounds like fun!! And that doesn’t even begin to factor in the surging budget baseline deficits that will require their own 15 percentage point across-the-board income tax hike to close.
“Taxing the rich is not enough. America would need to match or even surpass, Europe’s enormous tax burden on the middle class. There is no evidence that American voters will accept this level of taxation. America might be ready for democratic socialism. It’s not ready for the bill.”
Again I will remind you. This was published today in a VERY liberal publication. Riedl is using CBO scores along with estimates from liberal think tanks. Suffice to say this is a BEST CASE scenario.
Hats off to Vox for publishing something that goes against the sensibilities of 90% of their consumers. That takes guts.
To connoisseurs of Democratic Socialism; take heart. Yours is not the first well-intentioned dream to be scuttled by the pitiless powers of math.
I will include an infographic Riedl put with his report: